Precious metals news

Mexico's annual inflation dropped to 3.69% in early January, beating expectations and continuing its downward trend from December's 3.99%. While core inflation remained stable at 3.72%, a 2.67% decline in produce prices offset rising energy costs. Banxico, having cut rates by 25bps for four consecutive meetings to 10%, now faces a critical decision between maintaining its cautious approach or accelerating cuts. The decision is complicated by potential US tariffs and economic headwinds, with analysts split between expectations of a 25bp or 50bp cut at the February 6 meeting. Citi's survey shows 17 of 30 economists favoring a quarter-point reduction to 9.75%, while 13 predict a half-point cut to 9.5%.

Mexico's annual inflation dropped to 3.69% in early January, below both expectations and December's 3.99% rate, as Banxico weighs accelerating its monetary easing cycle. While core inflation remained stable at 3.72%, a 2.67% decline in produce prices helped counter an 0.82% surge in energy costs. Despite the favorable inflation data, some central bank officials remain cautious about larger rate cuts due to uncertainty surrounding potential US tariffs and Fed policy. Market expectations are split, with 17 of 30 economists forecasting a quarter-point cut to 9.75% in February, while 13 predict a half-point reduction to 9.5%.

Gold prices pulled back 0.4% to $2,744.49/oz following a three-month peak, with technical indicators suggesting an overbought position as the RSI reaches 64. Markets are digesting President Trump's proposed tariffs - 25% on Canada and Mexico, 10% on China, and potential levies on European imports starting February 1. The precious metal's trajectory toward $3,000 remains supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, including Trump's threats of sanctions against Russia over Ukraine. The Fed's upcoming January meeting adds another dimension, though rates are expected to hold steady with 96% probability.

Gold prices pulled back marginally from recent highs but maintain strong momentum, trading at $2,750/oz - just $40 shy of all-time records and on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. Investors are closely monitoring President Trump's proposed trade tariffs targeting major trading partners, while also awaiting US jobless claims data for insights into the Federal Reserve's rate policy. The precious metal's appeal as a safe-haven asset has been bolstered by geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchasing, and the Fed's shift to rate cuts. Trump's domestic policies, including tax cuts and immigration restrictions, could further support gold prices by potentially impacting growth and inflation dynamics.

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Oil markets held steady on Wednesday as traders assess multiple factors affecting global energy markets. President Trump's proposed tariffs - 10% on Chinese goods and 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports starting February 1 - have shifted market focus from Russian sanctions to potential trade policy impacts. Additionally, Trump's declaration of a national energy emergency and plans to maximize domestic production have yet to significantly influence prices. Meanwhile, operational disruptions from severe winter weather affected Motiva's Port Arthur complex and reduced North Dakota's oil production by 130,000-160,000 barrels per day.

Despite President Trump's promises to lower gas prices, analysts predict prices could rise significantly due to seasonal factors and proposed tariffs. Seasonal factors, including refinery maintenance and summer-blend transition, could push prices up 25-75 cents per gallon by spring. Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico could further increase prices, especially in the Midwest, where Canadian oil imports are crucial for refineries. Additionally, his pledge to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve "right to the top" could tighten oil supplies and boost prices. Industry experts note that despite Trump's "drill, baby, drill" agenda, oil companies remain focused on shareholder returns rather than increasing production, and current U.S. oil output is already at record levels.

Gold has emerged from its December wedge pattern with strong bullish momentum following the U.S. presidential transition. The precious metal has decisively broken above significant resistance at $2,721, marking an end to its recent period of indecision and stagnation. Technical analysis, supported by MACD momentum indicators, suggests a healthy uptrend with $2,800 as the next major target. While the long-term outlook remains uncertain and strong resistance may emerge at higher levels, traders are actively seeking entry opportunities on both daily and 4-hour timeframes during any potential pullbacks.

Gold prices are approaching record highs as markets react positively to President Trump's measured approach to tariffs in his first days in office. Despite campaign promises, Trump's first 24 hours in office have been marked by a more gradual approach to tariffs, with targeted threats rather than immediate universal implementation. This measured stance has weakened the US dollar, benefiting gold prices which have broken above key resistance at $2,715-20. Technical analysis suggests bullish momentum following a breakout from a November-December symmetrical triangle pattern, positioning the metal for a potential test of record highs near $2,790 or even $2,800+. However, a drop below $2,715 could trigger a pullback toward the 100-day moving average around $2,650.

The precious metals market is experiencing significant shifts across multiple fronts. US gold jewelry demand is heading for a fourth consecutive year of decline, highlighted by Signet Jewelers' 12% Q4 sales drop, reflecting a broader trend of consumers shifting to lower-carat gold products amid high prices. Global jewelry demand remains below 2021 levels, down 10% year-to-date through Q3 2024. Simultaneously, market uncertainty surrounding Trump's proposed tariffs has led to record gold flows into COMEX inventories, with a historic single-day addition of 676,000 ounces last Wednesday. Short-term gold lending rates are elevated, indicating tight liquidity, while speculative dollar positions reach five-year highs. While gold achieved a new euro-denominated record at €2,645.80/oz, it faces key technical resistance at $2,725/oz in dollar terms.

US mortgage rates experienced their first decline in six weeks, falling 7 basis points to 7.02%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's latest data. The decrease has helped sustain home purchase applications at their highest level in a year, with the purchase index rising 0.6%. The drop in rates mirrors falling Treasury yields, sparked by encouraging inflation data that strengthened expectations for earlier Federal Reserve rate cuts. The trend could continue as markets respond positively to President Trump's measured approach to tariff implementation in his first days in office. However, refinancing activity showed a contrasting trend, declining 2.9% during the same period.

Despite Trump's rollback of US electric vehicle targets, industry experts remain optimistic about critical minerals demand, citing strong global EV growth, particularly in China. While the policy change affected stock prices of automotive, battery, and mining companies, analysts emphasize that global EV adoption continues to accelerate, particularly in China, which dominates with 65% of the market. Industry leaders, including Liontown Resources CEO Antonino Ottaviano, maintain their bullish outlook, noting that markets outside North America are growing at 27% annually and could soon surpass the entire North American market. The resilience of global demand, especially in Asia and Europe, is expected to offset any potential slowdown in US EV adoption resulting from Trump's policy changes.

Gold's traditional market drivers are evolving, with fiscal concerns and geopolitical risks replacing historical factors like US dollar weakness and real yields. The precious metal has demonstrated remarkable strength, outperforming other major asset classes since late 2022, despite economic conditions that typically favor riskier assets. Looking ahead to 2025, gold's outlook remains positive, driven by structural shifts including mounting fiscal deficits, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and sustained central bank purchases amid de-dollarization efforts. While temporary setbacks may occur due to profit-taking or dollar strength, these factors are unlikely to derail gold's long-term upward trajectory. The metal's recent performance reinforces its role as a crucial tool for portfolio diversification, particularly as traditional safe-haven assets like Treasuries lose their appeal.

Greenlight Capital's fourth-quarter letter reveals a cautious stance on market valuations and limited exposure to the tech sector that drove 2023's market gains. The hedge fund, which returned 7% last year, expressed concerns about Apple's valuation multiple expansion despite stagnant revenue growth. While maintaining a defensive posture, the firm made several strategic investments, including a new position in Peloton, betting on its loyal customer base and cost-cutting potential. The fund also invested in CNH Industrial and Centene, while adjusting its portfolio by selling defense ETFs and healthcare positions in response to political changes. Notably, Einhorn criticized the cryptocurrency market's speculative nature, comparing it to the "fartcoin stage of the market cycle," though the fund profited from a sophisticated crypto-related trading strategy involving MicroStrategy and related ETFs.

Gold prices experienced a dramatic surge, jumping nearly 2% on Tuesday and extending gains to $2,750 per ounce following Donald Trump's first day back in office. The precious metal's rally was fueled by the new president's signing of over 200 executive orders, particularly those related to tariffs, which markets fear could reignite inflation. This breakthrough above a triple top technical formation has positioned gold within striking distance of its all-time high of $2,790, set during the Middle East conflict in October. While the Fed had previously signaled two rate cuts for 2025, rising inflation expectations might force a policy reassessment, creating a complex dynamic where gold benefits both from its traditional role as an inflation hedge and potential dollar strength resulting from the tariff policies.

At the 2025 Davos forum, JPMorgan's top executives struck an optimistic tone about the US economic outlook, while maintaining a careful eye on inflation risks. President Daniel Pinto expressed confidence in the current economic cycle's sustainability, though he emphasized that inflation remains a potential concern. This positive outlook was reinforced by Filippo Gori, head of JPMorgan's banking division, who pointed to renewed market enthusiasm driven by what he described as a more favorable regulatory environment under the new administration. Their observations came amid broader discussions at Davos spanning topics from interest rates to geopolitical challenges, with participation from global leaders including UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Spain's Premier Pedro Sanchez.

In this episode of The GoldSilver Show, Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard explore the fundamental “lenses of perception” that influence how different

US Treasury markets experienced a significant rally as President Trump's selective approach to tariffs temporarily calmed inflation fears. The decision to postpone China-specific tariffs, combined with falling crude prices following changes to offshore drilling policies, pushed 10-year yields down by 10 basis points to 4.53%. However, the announcement of 25% tariffs targeting Mexico and Canada created new market dynamics, sending their currencies tumbling over 1% and strengthening the dollar. While some analysts, including UBS's Mark Haefele, predict further yield declines and potential Fed rate cuts, others like ING and Nomura view this rally as temporary, citing structural pressures and ongoing deficit concerns. The market's reaction highlights the increasing sensitivity to policy shifts, with overnight-indexed swaps now indicating a 52% probability of multiple rate cuts this year.

A contrarian view is emerging among bond traders that the Federal Reserve might raise rates in 2025 rather than cut them, with options markets showing a 25% probability of a rate hike by year-end. This contrarian position, which emerged after a strong January jobs report, has maintained momentum even after favorable inflation data seemed to reinforce the Fed's rate-cutting stance. Options markets now show approximately 25% odds of a rate hike by year-end, down slightly from 30% before recent CPI data. The unconventional bet is largely tied to expectations about incoming President Trump's policies, particularly potential tariffs and immigration restrictions that could drive inflation higher. Former New York Fed economist Phil Suttle notably predicts a September rate hike, while Vanguard's global head of rates Roger Hallam suggests substantial inflation surprises could shift market expectations toward rate increases. This stands in stark contrast to the mainstream view, which has priced in at least one quar...

Treasury yields fell significantly Tuesday as markets reopened after the holiday weekend, reacting to President Trump's unexpected delay in implementing promised import tariffs. The 10-year yield dropped 5.6 basis points to 4.574%, while 30-year yields fell 5.9 basis points to 4.801%. While Trump later mentioned possible tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting in February, analysts remain divided on the timing and scope of future trade measures, with some still expecting significant tariffs later in the year.