Precious metals news

While most Americans are out celebrating the Fourth of July, this isn't the case for Bitcoin investors and the Bitcoin Mining Industry.  The Collapse in Bitcoin Mining Revenue since the Havling in April spells Big Trouble for the Industry if the Bitcoin price doesn't recover...

Recent labor market data in the US indicates a slowdown in hiring and wage growth. ADP Research Institute reports show private companies hired at a more moderate pace in June, with wage increases cooling for both job changers and job stayers. Additionally, recurring unemployment claims have risen for nine consecutive weeks, suggesting difficulties in finding new employment. The data, released ahead of the government's June employment report, points to weakening demand for workers across various sectors, with notable exceptions in leisure and hospitality. These trends align with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments about a move towards balance in the labor market supply and demand.

The world is facing an unprecedented $91 trillion government debt crisis, nearly equivalent to the global economy's size. This massive debt, partly due to pandemic-related costs, threatens living standards even in wealthy nations like the United States. Despite warnings from the International Monetary Fund and growing investor concerns, politicians worldwide are largely avoiding addressing the issue, especially in election years. The situation is leading to increased market anxiety, with investors demanding higher yields on government bonds. This crisis may necessitate difficult decisions regarding tax increases and spending cuts, potentially impacting economic stability and risking a new financial crisis if left unaddressed.

Oil prices remained near a two-month high, with Brent crude holding above $86 a barrel, driven by reports of a significant drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles. The American Petroleum Institute indicated a 9.2 million barrel decrease last week, potentially the largest since January if confirmed by official data. This year, oil prices have been bolstered by a positive sentiment in equity markets, concerns over an active hurricane season, and geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and upcoming elections in France, the UK, and Iran. However, concerns about weak U.S. gasoline demand persist.

Gold prices rose on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar weakened following dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Investors are now focusing on the upcoming minutes from the Fed's latest policy meeting for insights into potential interest rate cuts. The softening dollar, combined with Powell's acknowledgment of improving inflation trends, has made gold more attractive to investors. Market expectations now favor rate cuts in September and December, which could further boost gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset. However, upcoming economic data, including job reports, will play a crucial role in shaping the precious metal's trajectory.

Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell has expressed concern about the United States' high budget deficits, warning that the current level of spending is unsustainable given the strong economy and low unemployment rate. Powell emphasized the need to address fiscal imbalances "sooner rather than later," noting that while the current debt level is manageable, the trajectory is not. His comments come amid growing worries about rising national debt, projected to reach 99% of GDP this year and potentially 122% by 2034. Powell's statements highlight the tension between fiscal policy and monetary policy, especially as both major political parties seem unlikely to prioritize deficit reduction in the upcoming election.

Turkey's inflation rate has unexpectedly decreased for the first time in eight months, dropping to 71.6% in June from 75.5% in May. This decline, which surpassed economists' predictions, marks the beginning of a disinflation process following aggressive monetary tightening measures. The government bonds rallied in response, while the Turkish lira remained stable. Officials are optimistic about rapid disinflation in the coming months, with some experts predicting inflation could fall to around 50% by August. This turnaround is crucial for investors who have been increasing their holdings in Turkish assets, and it may influence future monetary policy decisions.

Morgan Stanley analysts suggest that a potential Trump victory in the upcoming presidential election could significantly impact interest rates. While rates remained low during Trump's previous term and the early Biden administration, they surged in 2022 due to inflation caused by various factors. Now, with moderating inflation and economic growth, the focus is on when the Federal Reserve might start cutting rates. However, a Trump win could alter this trajectory, potentially leading to higher government borrowing and inflation expectations, which could influence the Fed's rate decisions and overall economic policy.

The US dollar has strengthened following a Supreme Court ruling that grants former President Donald Trump partial immunity from criminal charges related to the 2020 election. This decision reduces the likelihood of a trial before the November presidential election, increasing the perceived chances of a second Trump term. Traders anticipate that Trump's potential trade policies could further support a stronger dollar. The ruling's impact on the dollar is already evident, with the currency reaching its highest level since November and putting pressure on other global currencies, particularly the Japanese yen. Analysts suggest that Trump's potential inflationary policies could lead to a halt in Federal Reserve rate cuts, further bolstering the dollar.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has stated that services inflation doesn't need to reach the 2% target for the ECB to consider interest rate cuts. While overall euro-zone inflation has moderated to 2.5%, services inflation remains high at 4.1%, largely due to wage pressures. Lagarde emphasized the need to balance goods and services inflation and consider the lagged impact of Europe's labor system on wages. This stance suggests a more nuanced approach to monetary policy, potentially allowing for rate cuts even if services inflation remains above target.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee suggests that the Fed should consider cutting interest rates if inflation continues to decline towards the 2% target. Speaking at an event in Portugal, Goolsbee emphasized that maintaining current rates while inflation falls effectively tightens monetary policy. He believes inflation is on track to reach the 2% goal, citing recent data showing slower price increases. This stance contrasts with the Fed's current approach of holding rates steady at a two-decade high while awaiting more conclusive evidence of inflation control.

U.S. Treasury yields are bolstering the dollar, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan. This trend is driven by expectations of a Trump presidency leading to higher tariffs and government borrowing. Investors are closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech and U.S. job openings data for further market direction. The dollar index has risen, while the euro has retreated slightly following the French election results. Analysts suggest that Powell's potentially optimistic stance on disinflation could pose downside risks for the dollar.

The expiration of the Subchapter V bankruptcy protection filing, which made it easier for small businesses to seek relief, will now complicate the process for those with more than $3 million in debt. This filing type, introduced in 2020 and temporarily expanded during the pandemic, offered a cheaper and less time-consuming alternative to traditional Chapter 11 bankruptcy. It provided benefits such as shorter deadlines, greater flexibility in restructuring plans, and no U.S. Trustee quarterly fees. Data shows that Subchapter V filers had a higher rate of plan confirmation and fewer dismissals compared to other bankruptcy types. The reversion to the lower debt threshold may significantly impact small businesses seeking bankruptcy protection.

In this insightful video, Alan Hibbard and Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital delve into the potential impacts of interest rate cuts on gold and silver

The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, raising concerns among economists and Federal Reserve officials about potential economic challenges ahead. Key indicators such as fewer job openings, decreased employee turnover, and a slight uptick in unemployment suggest the end of the post-pandemic tight labor market. While strong hiring has helped the economy withstand aggressive interest rate hikes, there are fears that further softening in labor conditions could jeopardize economic growth. With inflation still above the Fed's target, upcoming labor reports will be crucial in assessing the market's direction and potential implications for monetary policy.

Gold prices have retreated slightly from record highs but remain above $2,400 per ounce, supported by safe-haven demand and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts. However, China's gold imports have slowed significantly, with April purchases dropping 30% from March due to record prices and seasonal factors. This decline affects both investor and central bank demand in China, a key driver of recent gold strength. Meanwhile, copper prices continue to rise, hitting new records amid supply concerns and M&A activity. Analysts suggest that while more investors are drawn to gold, the market may be due for a correction before further price increases.

As Americans prepare for Independence Day celebrations and the start of the summer travel season, they face significantly higher gasoline prices compared to previous years. Since 2016, gas prices have nearly doubled, and they've almost quadrupled since 2000. Although prices have eased slightly from the record highs of mid-2022, they remain historically high for US standards. This trend is likely to impact travel plans and dampen the enthusiasm for the holiday, as many Americans traditionally embark on long-distance trips during this period. The persistent high fuel costs reflect a broader trend of increasing gasoline prices over the past decade, potentially causing financial strain for travelers during what is typically a festive season.

Dollar loan volumes in Asia (excluding Japan) have plummeted to a 14-year low in the first half of 2024, dropping 44% to $45.5 billion. This decline contrasts sharply with the global trend, where US-currency loan sales increased by 37%. The slump in Asian dollar loans is attributed to higher US interest rates, which have made borrowing in dollars less attractive for Asian companies. As a result, many firms are turning to alternative financing options, such as local-currency bonds and bank financing, which offer more favorable borrowing costs. This shift highlights the growing maturity of local capital markets in some Asian countries and the increasing flexibility of borrowers in choosing funding sources.

Gold prices experienced a slight decline in Asian trading on Tuesday, remaining within a narrow range as investors await key economic indicators and statements from Federal Reserve officials. The precious metal has been under pressure due to concerns about high U.S. interest rates, which have strengthened the dollar and Treasury yields. Traders are particularly focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, the release of June's Fed meeting minutes, and Friday's nonfarm payrolls data. Despite increased expectations for a September rate cut, gold has shown limited response, highlighting the market's cautious approach amid economic uncertainty.

Before the precious metals make another BIG MOVE HIGHER, we will likely see a correction first.  This is especially true with the high commercial net short position in Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin.  However, Bitcoin has already fallen $10,000 from its highs and may have further to go...