Precious metals news

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that U.S. regulators are nearing agreement on a revised plan for bank capital requirements, potentially easing the initially proposed 19% increase for big banks. This development suggests a significant shift in response to intense lobbying from major financial institutions, who argued the original plan could hinder lending. While specific changes weren't detailed, Powell indicated that the revised proposal would likely be subject to a 60-day public comment period. This move represents a potential victory for Wall Street banks and highlights the ongoing balance regulators are trying to strike between financial stability and economic growth.

The United States faces a growing $35 trillion national debt crisis that neither major presidential candidate is addressing honestly. Budget expert Brian Riedl, in an analysis for the Manhattan Institute, outlines potential solutions to stabilize federal borrowing and prevent a debt crisis. These solutions involve a combination of tax increases, spending cuts, and benefit reductions, which are politically unpopular but necessary. Riedl suggests that the U.S. doesn't need to eliminate its entire debt, but rather maintain it at around 100% of GDP. The analysis highlights that higher taxes on the wealthy will be inevitable, given the concentration of wealth among the top 1% of earners. However, politicians avoid discussing these tough choices due to their potential negative impact on voter support.

The 2024 presidential election is seeing a notable lack of financial support from America's top CEOs, with only two out of the 100 biggest companies' leaders making disclosed donations to either major party candidate. This trend continues a decline in CEO engagement in presidential politics that began with Donald Trump's entry into the political arena. While some business figures are backing Trump or Biden, the vast majority of top executives are keeping their distance financially. This marks a significant shift from previous elections, such as 2012, when CEO involvement was much higher. The total donations from these top executives to presidential candidates amount to only about $88,000, with most of that going to Trump's now-defunct primary rivals.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress signals a potential shift in the Fed's approach to monetary policy. While acknowledging progress in combating inflation, Powell highlighted the cooling job market and the risks of maintaining high interest rates for too long. This balanced perspective suggests the Fed is moving closer to considering rate cuts, possibly as early as September. Powell's comments reflect a more nuanced view of economic risks, balancing the need to control inflation with concerns about potentially weakening economic activity and employment. The testimony comes amid mixed economic data, with inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target but showing signs of easing.

In this episode, Peter recaps the latest batch of economic data, in which revisions to job numbers and a declining manufacturing sector bode poorly for the economy. He also analyzes gold and silver’s big week last week and offers some thoughts on President Biden’s recent post-debate interview on ABC.

Gold has experienced a remarkable rally in 2024, surging over 15% year-to-date and reaching record highs despite high interest rates and a strong US dollar. This bullish trend is expected to continue through the end of the year, driven by geopolitical tensions, safe-haven demand, and sustained central bank buying. The prospect of US interest rate cuts, particularly as early as September, further supports gold's outlook. While some central banks like China have paused their gold purchases, others such as Poland, Turkey, and India continue to add to their reserves. The World Gold Council's survey indicates that central bank demand for gold is likely to remain strong, with 29% of respondents planning to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months.

Incrementum AG's July 2024 Gold Compass report offers investors a comprehensive analysis of the gold market, featuring over 50 detailed charts and graphs. This extensive research delves into current trends, market dynamics, and economic factors influencing gold prices. The report is an invaluable resource for understanding the complexities of the gold market and making informed investment decisions. Access the full report to gain insights from one of the leading authorities in gold and silver research.

The U.S. economic landscape is at a critical juncture, with recent data potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The unemployment rate's unexpected rise to 4.1% in June has increased the odds of a September rate cut to 72%, up from 47% a month ago. This development brings the economy closer to triggering the Sahm Rule, a respected recession indicator. As Fed Chair Jerome Powell prepares for his semiannual testimony, investors are keenly watching for signals about the Fed's stance on its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. The upcoming Consumer Price Index data and two more employment reports before September could be pivotal in determining the Fed's next move.

Major U.S. banks are expected to report lower second-quarter profits due to decreased interest income and increased provisions for potential loan losses. Analysts anticipate higher risks associated with commercial and industrial (C&I) loans and commercial real estate loans, reflecting a normalization of the credit cycle. The Federal Reserve's stress test indicates C&I loan loss rates could rise to 8.1% from 6.7% last year. However, the outlook isn't entirely gloomy, as Wall Street divisions may see improved performance due to a 20% increase in global merger and acquisition volumes and a 10% rise in equity capital market volumes in the first half of the year.

The gold market is currently experiencing choppy behavior, trading within a large consolidation area. Despite initial gains on Tuesday, the market showed signs of hesitation. Analysts expect continued fluctuations as the market seeks to find value, with potential for further short-term drops. However, long-term bullish factors remain, including central bank purchases, potential global interest rate cuts, and ongoing geopolitical concerns. Technical analysis indicates support levels at the 50-day EMA near $2,320 and a major support at $2,300, with further support at the 200-day EMA around $2,200. Given these factors, the overall outlook for gold remains positive, although the market may continue to move sideways in the near term, particularly during the summer months.

Gold prices edged up slightly on Tuesday as investors await Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress and the upcoming U.S. June inflation data for insights into future interest rate decisions. The market is particularly sensitive to any unexpected dovish comments from Powell, which could push gold closer to $2,400 per ounce. However, persistent inflation could lead to a reversal of recent gains. Current market expectations, influenced by rising unemployment rates, suggest a high probability of a rate cut in September, with another expected by December. These factors continue to be the primary drivers of gold prices in the short term.

It's truly "Gluttonous" how much energy it takes to produce one Bitcoin compared to Gold and silver.  Worse yet, you don't even get to hold or store a physical Bitcoin like you can with gold and silver.  This is precisely why I favor investing in physical precious metals over Bitcoin...

In today’s video, Alan Hibbard dives deep into the accelerating expansion of BRICS and its significant implications for the US dollar

Gold prices dropped over 1% on Monday due to increased risk appetite in the equity markets and profit-taking by investors following a sharp rally. Spot gold fell to $2,357.88 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures settled at $2,363.50. The decline comes after gold reached its highest level since May 22 on Friday, driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September. Bob Haberkorn, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures, attributed the drop to profit-taking and strong performance in equities, which hit record highs. Despite the current dip, Haberkorn anticipates higher gold prices based on predictions of further Fed rate cuts later in the year.

Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop of over 10% in the past week, falling from around $63,000 to just under $54,000. Despite this decline, Grayscale's Head of Research, Zach Pandl, suggests that a rebound may still be possible. Factors influencing Bitcoin's price include Germany's ongoing sale of seized Bitcoin, which continues to exert downward pressure, and potential bullish catalysts such as a dovish shift from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the anticipated debut of Ethereum ETFs. While investors have shown interest in buying the dip, pouring over $140 million into Bitcoin ETFs, the continued sell pressure from Germany's remaining $2 billion Bitcoin stash could lead to further downside movements, potentially affecting newer Bitcoin buyers who entered at higher price points.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to testify before Congress this week, facing pressure from lawmakers on multiple fronts. He will likely defend the Fed's stance on maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation, despite growing impatience for rate cuts. Powell will also address concerns about the Fed's plan to increase capital requirements for major banks. As his last scheduled public address to Congress before the presidential election, Powell must navigate these issues while asserting the Fed's political independence. Recent economic data showing a slowdown in inflation may influence the discussion, but Powell is expected to maintain a cautious approach to potential rate cuts.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports a gradual decline in the US dollar's share of global foreign reserves as numerous countries, particularly those in the ASEAN and BRICS alliances, adopt 'de-dollarization' strategies. These nations are moving away from the US dollar in favor of alternative currencies for various political, economic, and geographical reasons. The article lists 12 countries actively reducing their reliance on the US dollar, signaling a shift in the global financial landscape and potentially challenging the dollar's long-standing dominance as the world's primary reserve currency.

Citi Research analysts predict an aggressive series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, starting in September 2024 and continuing through July 2025. They anticipate eight consecutive 25 basis point cuts, totaling a 200 basis point reduction, which would lower the benchmark rate from 5.25%-5.5% to 3.25%-3.5%. This forecast is based on recent economic indicators suggesting a slowdown, including a reversal in the service sector gauge and rising unemployment. Citi cites dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell and various signs of economic weakness, particularly in the job market, as supporting their prediction. They also warn of the potential for a sharper economic downturn and the possibility of triggering the "Sahm Rule" recession indicator if unemployment continues to rise at its current pace.

The upcoming U.S. inflation report for June, set to be released on Thursday, is poised to be a pivotal event for financial markets. This report could significantly influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts, potentially impacting the timing of the first cut. A lower-than-expected inflation reading might encourage Fed Chair Jerome Powell to signal a rate cut in September, or even open the possibility of a cut as early as July. Conversely, a higher-than-anticipated inflation figure could halt the current stock market rally. The report's importance is heightened by its potential to affect various market sectors, including stocks, Treasury debt, and even the presidential election race, making it a focal point for investors and economists alike.

BCA Research's chief global strategist, Peter Berezin, predicts a 32% drop in the S&P 500 by 2025 due to an impending U.S. recession. Berezin argues that the Federal Reserve's delayed approach to cutting interest rates will fail to prevent an economic downturn, which he expects to begin in late 2024 or early 2025. This bearish outlook challenges the prevailing "soft-landing" narrative, suggesting that rising unemployment and tightened credit conditions will curb consumer spending, exacerbating the recession. Berezin anticipates that the Fed will only significantly loosen financial conditions once the recession becomes evident, by which time it may be too late to avert a market crash.