Precious metals news

Gold prices are expected to be influenced heavily by U.S. interest rate decisions in 2025, with BMI analysts predicting a cautious approach to rate cuts due to Trump's victory and potential inflation from tariffs. While gold is projected to average $2,500 per ounce next year, further upside may be limited. The metal's non-yielding nature means larger and more frequent rate cuts could push prices higher, but a resilient U.S. economy might temper this effect.

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U.S. jobless claims surged to 242,000 last week, marking a two-month high and exceeding economists' forecast of 220,000. The rise, which coincided with the Thanksgiving holiday, reflects a broader trend of elevated unemployment claims near three-year highs. Continuing claims also increased to 1.89 million, suggesting prolonged job searches for many Americans. California, Texas, and New York led the spike in claims, while only four states reported declines.

A strengthening US dollar and various economic challenges have caused the biggest decline in emerging market currencies since 2022. The JPMorgan emerging market currency index has fallen over 5% in the past two and a half months, with at least 23 currencies weakening against the dollar this quarter. This decline is attributed to expectations of Trump's trade policies, country-specific issues, and a general shift away from riskier assets.

Wall Street bond traders are grappling with the elusive concept of the neutral interest rate, which is crucial for predicting Federal Reserve policy. With estimates ranging widely, the uncertainty is causing significant volatility in the bond market. Investors face high stakes, as incorrect assumptions about the neutral rate can lead to substantial losses.

The gold market is taking a breather after a four-day advance, with prices slipping as traders reassess the longer-term outlook for US interest rates. While next week's Fed meeting is likely to bring a rate cut, the monetary policy trajectory for 2025 is less certain. This uncertainty, coupled with potential political changes, has caused some hesitation in the gold market. However, the precious metal remains poised for its best yearly performance in over four decades, buoyed by various supportive factors including central bank buying and safe-haven demand.

The World Gold Council (WGC) predicts a moderate increase in gold prices for 2025, contingent on stable market conditions. This forecast follows an exceptional year for gold in 2024, with prices hitting numerous record highs and total demand surpassing $100 billion in Q3. The WGC suggests potential upside if central bank demand exceeds expectations or if economic instability drives safe-haven demand. However, a reversal in interest rate cuts could pose challenges. The outlook considers factors such as expected rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and the impact of U.S. policies under a second Trump term.

The U.S. Treasury just released its November statement, and what a budget deficit disaster.  In the first two months of the U.S. Fiscal year, the U.S. Treasury racked up a record $624 billion in deficits.  Remember, deficits become money printing, which will turn into future price inflation...

The Bank of Canada slashed its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.25% on December 11, 2024, marking its fifth consecutive cut. This aggressive move comes in response to rising unemployment, which hit 6.8% in November, and a weakening economy. The central bank aims to stimulate economic growth and consumer spending while keeping inflation within its 1-3% target range. This decision is expected to benefit variable mortgage holders and could potentially reignite Canada's housing market.

Several major US banks express optimism for 2025, citing positive economic indicators and the potential impact of the incoming Trump administration. JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and PNC executives highlight expectations of increased revenues, higher investment banking fees, and improved trading performance.

November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year, meeting economists' projections and supporting the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts. The monthly increase of 0.3% was the largest since April, while core inflation remained steady at 3.3% annually. Despite persistent inflation in shelter and services, experts believe the Fed will proceed with a 25bp rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Gold prices remain flat as markets brace for crucial US inflation figures. The upcoming CPI data could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates and shape expectations for monetary policy in 2025. With spot gold at $2,695.91 per ounce, investors are closely watching for potential catalysts that could drive the precious metal's next move.

Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices could soar to $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, despite potential increases in the U.S. dollar's value. This forecast is based on expected interest rate cuts, heightened global uncertainty, and continued central bank buying. The analysts argue that gold can rally alongside a stronger dollar, challenging conventional wisdom. They cite factors such as Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and strategic diversification by key buyers like China as drivers for gold's potential surge.

Oil prices wavered Tuesday following Monday's gains, influenced by Syria's regime change and China's economic stimulus plans. WTI crude rose slightly to $68.52 per barrel, while Brent crude dipped to $72.03. The fall of Assad's regime in Syria introduced a modest risk premium, despite Syria not being a major oil producer. Concerns about potential impacts on Iran and Russia, key oil producers and Assad allies, contributed to market uncertainty. Meanwhile, China's pledge for monetary easing and fiscal stimulus provided some support to oil prices.

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The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to implement its fourth consecutive interest rate cut this week, but officials are divided on how much these reductions can stimulate the eurozone's struggling economy. While some policymakers advocate for rapid cuts to boost consumer spending and business investment, others are more cautious, arguing that structural issues like high energy costs and labor shortages are beyond monetary policy's scope. The outcome of this debate will influence the extent of the ECB's easing campaign and its potential to stimulate economic activity.

The United States and the United Kingdom have imposed new sanctions targeting the illicit gold trade, which they claim funds Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine and fosters corruption. The UK froze the assets of five individuals, including Kamlesh Pattni, a businessman accused of smuggling gold and laundering money through a global network. These sanctions aim to disrupt Russia's use of illegal gold to evade sanctions and bolster its military efforts.

Bullion prices edged higher for the third consecutive day, reaching near $2,675 an ounce, as market attention shifts to key US inflation data due this week. The reports are expected to provide insight into the Fed's final rate decision of the year, with traders anticipating a potential 25-basis point cut despite ongoing inflationary concerns.

It is no coincidence that the surge in U.S. public debt over the past decade pushed the cost of producing gold to a record high.  So, how much will the increase in U.S. debt by 2030 further impact the gold mining cost?  Good question.  In this update, I provide my analysis of this fascinating subject...

Japan's economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.2% in Q3 2024, surpassing initial estimates of 0.9%. This stronger-than-expected growth has intensified speculation about an imminent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. The revised data, showing a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion, strengthens the case for monetary policy tightening and has contributed to the yen's recent appreciation.